Projection of present and future daily and evening urban heat load patterns
In this modeling study the recent and future daily and evening thermal climate of a Central-European city (Szeged, Hungary) was investigated in terms of heat load modification by applying MUKLIMO_3 model to project daily and evening climate indices. For surface parameterization the Local Climate Zon...
Elmentve itt :
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| Dokumentumtípus: | Cikk |
| Megjelent: |
University of Szeged, Faculty of Sciences and Informatics
Szeged
2020
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| Sorozat: | Acta climatologica
54 |
| Kulcsszavak: | Klímaindex, Éghajlat - városi |
| Tárgyszavak: | |
| doi: | 10.14232/acta.clim.2020.54.2 |
| Online Access: | http://acta.bibl.u-szeged.hu/76522 |
| Tartalmi kivonat: | In this modeling study the recent and future daily and evening thermal climate of a Central-European city (Szeged, Hungary) was investigated in terms of heat load modification by applying MUKLIMO_3 model to project daily and evening climate indices. For surface parameterization the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) scheme was used. The investigation encompassed three climatological time periods (1981–2010, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100) and two emission scenarios for future climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our results show that highest index values appear in the city centre and stretch to the NW direction (LCZs 2, 3 and 8) and they decrease towards to the vegetated rural surfaces (mainly LCZ D). That is, the values depend on the zone types and there are more days towards to the densely built-up LCZs. Also, a general temporal change can be detected as the index patterns show the substantial increasing tendency for both indices towards the end of this century. This temporal change suggests a two-way conclusion: first, the increasing number of hot days means a strongly deteriorating change of unfavourable thermal conditions, and second, the change in the number of the evening index provides more opportunities for regeneration and leisure-time activities outdoors in the already thermally less stressful evening hours for the urban inhabitants. This study gives very illustrative examples on the expected climate changes during this century and these examples show that there are several sides to these changes in urban environments. Furthermore, they clearly prove that global or regional scale climate predictions without urban climate interactions do not have enough detailed information. |
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| Terjedelem/Fizikai jellemzők: | 19-27 |
| ISSN: | 0563-0614, 0324-6523 |