Research on information propagation analyzing odds in horse racing

We focus on the odds in horse racing to study the information propagation to get an idea for fluctuation on information propagation. Analyzing past data of horse racing, and constructing a mathematical model of winning probability, we find a correlation between odds and results of races. As a first...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Ohta Shingo
Yamanaka Masato
Sato Joe
Nomura Takaaki
Format: Article
Published: 2010
Series:Proceedings of the Challenges for Analysis of the Economy, the Businesses, and Social Progress : International Scientific Conference Szeged, November 19-21, 2009
Kulcsszavak:Sztochasztikus modell, Lóverseny
Online Access:http://acta.bibl.u-szeged.hu/57876
Description
Summary:We focus on the odds in horse racing to study the information propagation to get an idea for fluctuation on information propagation. Analyzing past data of horse racing, and constructing a mathematical model of winning probability, we find a correlation between odds and results of races. As a first step, we focus on two ways of betting called „WIN” and „EXACTA.” We confirm that the winning probability derived from odds of each horse is mostly in accord with actual data. Then, comparing the result with a stochastic model of winning probability constructed with EXACTA odds, we find out fluctuations between them. Finally, we consider where is the origin of the fluctuations.
Physical Description:1367-1375
ISBN:978-963-06-9558-9