A globális válság hatása és a kínai rendszer politikai átalakulása a világválság és hatása a rendszer átalakulásra Kínában /
This study aims to analyze the implications of the dynamics of the world economy on the transformation of the party-state system in China. It states that, as global growth indirectly results in economic transformation, global decline may give rise to political changes. The definitions concerning the...
'89 rendszerváltozások Kelet-Európában : konferenciakötet 5
|Kulcsszavak:||Politikai változások - Kína - 1989-|
|Summary:||This study aims to analyze the implications of the dynamics of the world economy on the transformation of the party-state system in China. It states that, as global growth indirectly results in economic transformation, global decline may give rise to political changes. The definitions concerning the transformation and the dynamics of this transformation are based on the so-called interactive party-state (IPS) model (Csanádi, 2006). Wide ranges of statistical data are presented to measure the dynamics of the transformation and its differences in various (local, temporal and other) aspects. The study devises characteristic patterns and trends and also attempts to illustrate alterations in these patterns and trends. Most alterations correlate with changes in some economic indicators. Considering the effects of the ongoing worldwide financial and economic crisis, this study predicts that a new type of transformation dynamics may prevail in the near future. With the help of some theoretical and empirical facts, it tries to characterize the impacts of the new predominant type on the preconditions of political transformation. It indicates the uncertainties of such predictions as well. The study suggests that the global economic downturn - which escalated in 2008 - not just adversely affects the country's economic performance but is likely to increase governmental intervention via stimulus packages while decelerating economic transformation. It may also contribute to political changes. The study pays special attention to the direct and indirect effects of the global economic crisis and it detects considerable differences among Chinese prefectures. It seems that the global economic downturn and the subsequent national economic slowdown in China will result in various consequences in each prefecture. Thus, the leaders of the Chinese party-state will have to react in various ways dependent on the impacts of the crisis in their respective prefectures. These reactions are likely to remain within the discretion of the local political elites which is why such reactions will probably correlate with the local division of power between the party-state networks and that of the `free' market sector.|